The global hunger crisis caused by conflict – and now compounded by COVID-19 – is moving into a dangerous phase, the head of the UN World Food Programme (WFP) said on Thursday, stressing that without resources, a wave of famine could sweep the globe, overwhelming nations already weakened by years of instability. Above-average livestock prices and milk production are also supplementing food and income from crop production. The easing of rainfall during the January to February dry season permitted the completion of both the delayed, unimodal long rains harvest in high and medium agricultural areas in western Kenya and the bimodal short rains harvest in marginal agricultural areas in central and southeastern Kenya. Sporadic cattle raids also affected market operations at the border of West Pokot and Turkana at Kainuk, but the situation has since returned to normal. The anticipated balance is near the five-year average of 3.147 MMT, but due to population growth and increased household consumption levels that is eight percent above the five-year average, the ending stocks in June are projected to be 0.1 MMT, 52 percent below the five-year average and indicative of a deficit. Further, current and planned control measures are most likely to control the intensity of breeding and mitigate the severity of damage to rangelands. NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — The United Nations humanitarian office is releasing $100 million in emergency funding to seven countries at risk of famine in Africa and the Middle East amid conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic, while the humanitarian chief says returning to a world where famines are common would be “obscene.”. 15, 2020 , 1:45 PM. To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. As a result, return trekking distances for livestock from grazing areas to water sources were considerably below average in February, ranging from 2 to 8 kilometers (km) compared to 4-15 km normally. However, some exceptions exist, such as in Isiolo, where livestock holdings are lowest (2 TLUs) and milk production is one liter per household per day on average. According to NDMA sentinel site data, more than 80 percent of households in the southeast reported an acceptable food consumption score (FCS). Alarm bells have been ringing for months that COVID-19 could push fragile African countries “closer to the abyss” of famine as jobs are lost, local markets close, and poverty deepens.. Aid agencies routinely list the coronavirus as a major factor in driving humanitarian needs, from the Sahel to Somalia, and don’t shy away from describing its impact as the “perfect storm”. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. When people don't have enough food to eat, acute malnutrition sets in and weakens the immune system. Similarly, the use of consumption-based coping strategies as measured by rCSI broadly declined from October 2019 through February 2020, showing steady improvement. Over 20,000 Ethiopians have fled as refugees into Sudan, with numbers continuing to grow, … The terms of trade were highest in West Pokot, where the sale of a goat could fetch 105 kg of maize, which is nearly 80 percent above the five-year average. English Situation Report on Kenya about Agriculture, Food and Nutrition and Drought; published on 30 Oct 2020 by FEWS NET In 1992 two missionaries Rick and Cheri Thompson were working in Kenya. To date, only 35,000 hectares of infested areas have been sprayed, which represents a small proportion of affected areas. Despite high maize prices, household purchasing power as measured by the goat-to-maize terms of trade is broadly favorable due to high livestock prices, benefitting poor households with saleable livestock. Nonetheless, localized insecurity, cattle rustling, and sporadic intercommunal conflict periodically affects local livelihoods and market access. However, FEWS NET’s mapping units differ from the KFSSG, leading to a difference in mapped outcomes. Guidance for health workers pdf, 248kb 3. Below-average forage and water availability would be expected from June onward, while farming households would suffer crop losses, due to the interaction of poor rainfall with desert locusts even in the presence of aerial and ground control operations. The list of following conferences are including the following topics like business related conferences, engineering conferences, education, social. Based on FEWS NET’s technical price projections in reference markets in Nairobi, the retail price of a kg of maize is expected to range from 34 to 40 percent above the five-year average throughout the scenario period. Consequently, livestock are being watered twice as regularly across all pastoral areas except in Wajir and Isiolo, where the frequency remains normal at once every two days. The below-average rainfall forecasted for late 2020 and early 2021 due to La Niña are expected to drive food insecurity, increase water scarcity and give rise to disease outbreaks. When a person's immune system is weak, it becomes more susceptible to diseases that can be fatal. Through December 2020, income-earning opportunities in affected sectors are expected to remain constrained, particularly in urban areas. The start of the dry season in January has permitted normal livelihoods activities to resume, which has enabled recovery to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) area-level outcomes in most areas of concern. In northeastern Kenya, clashes between Somali and Jubaland defense forces affected Mandera town in late February, suspending livelihood activities and market operations. In Samburu, recurring communal and resource-based conflicts also periodically limit access to forage and water for livestock and impede market operations in Baragoi. However, an exception to this trend is Tana Riverine livelihood zone, where severe flooding contaminated water sources and led to increased waterborne disease incidence. Veterinary department interventions have also proven instrumental to limiting livestock disease outbreaks and maintaining livestock health. In Wajir, terror-related attacks in parts of Wajir East and Tarbaj sub counties in late January disrupted market supply flows and household market access. Given that favorable rangeland resources will most likely support good livestock body conditions, most households are expected to limit livestock sales in order to restock their herds, and quarantines may be imposed in response to RVF outbreaks which will further restrict market supply, livestock prices are expected to be sustained at moderately to significantly above average prices throughout the scenario period. However, as anticipated in October due to funding constraints, WFP cut rations down to 70 percent of daily kilocalorie needs and this will persist throughout the scenario period. Based on the above-average long rains forecast, planned desert locust control operations, and high likelihood that better-off households will seek to maximize crop production prospects during a favorable rainfall season, area planted for the unimodal and bimodal long rains seasons is expected to be above average. Despite lower livestock holdings, milk production has rebounded from the drought, reflecting good birth levels and body conditions. Health is a key component in the response to famine. In late February, NDVI data showed vegetation greenness was upwards of 140 percent of normal across most of the country and 105-120 percent of normal in western and northeastern Kenya (Figure 3). As a result, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes exist in Makueni, Kitui, Nyeri (Kieni), Meru (Meru North), Embu (Mbeere), Taita Taveta, and Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka). New York, NY, December 3, 2020 — The International Rescue Committee is extremely concerned by the findings of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) that classified parts of Yemen as experiencing ‘famine like conditions’, with over 47,000 people projected to fall into this category in the next 6 months. Challenge Farm is 10 acre farm, home, church and school. Infographic on famine and health jpg, 91… Vanguard, Dec, 2, 2020. Throughout the scenario period, acute malnutrition levels are expected to remain stable or marginally improve across all pastoral areas, given improvements in milk and food intake. Interannual assistance in the form of cash transfers amounting to KES 2,700 per month by NDMA’s Hunger Safety Net Programme (HSNP), funded by DFID, is expected to reach about 100,000 households (600,000 beneficiaries) in Mandera, Turkana, Marsabit, and Wajir counties. (AP Photo, File), Connect with the definitive source for global and local news. For 2020, Kenya is ranked 84 of 138 out of the countries considered for the annual GFP review. The maize import gap is anticipated to be about 0.69 MMT, or 10 percent above the five-year average. The lowest acute malnutrition prevalence was observed in Saku and Moyale sub counties in Marsabit at ‘Alert’ (GAM MUAC <5 percent) levels. However, given localized crop production shortfalls due to desert locust, likely reductions to income from harvesting labor that a large proportion of poor households depend on, and high staple food prices, additional households in areas like Meru (Meru North), Nyeri (Kieni), Embu (Mbeere), Kitui, Makueni, and Taita Taveta will deteriorate to Stressed (IPC Phase 2). The crisis has created 2.2 million refugees and displaced 1.5 million inside the country. A statement overnight said $80 million of the money will go to Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Congo, Nigeria, South Sudan and Yemen. NDMA price data in February showed that the retail price of maize was 14-33 percent above the five-year average in most reference markets; exceptions included markets in Kwale county, where the price of a kg of maize was near average, and markets in Turkana county, where the price was 16 percent below average due to sufficient supply flows from source markets in Trans Nzoia county. Kenya and Somalia have had a long simmering territorial dispute. In contrast, beans production ranged from 25 to 38 percent below average on the county level. WFP further provided in-kind food assistance to approximately 260,000 beneficiaries as well as supplementary feeding to health centers for approximately 57,319 beneficiaries in Turkana, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa and Tana River. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) would be likely in vulnerable pastoral areas, while more households would experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes across the country. Another $20 million has been set aside for “anticipatory action to fight hunger in Ethiopia,” where deadly fighting erupted this month in its rebellious northern Tigray region. However, field assessment information collected by the KFSSG in February shows that poor households’ livestock holdings in terms of tropical livestock units (TLUs)[1] remain below the 10-year average due to losses during recent droughts and floods as well as distressed sales. Areas of greatest concern include Tana Riverine areas, where households are still recovering from the floods, and parts of Northeastern Pastoral livelihood zone, where insecurity will limit control efforts. In marginal agricultural areas, net short rains production is approximately 26 percent above the long-term average. However, many poor households are still experiencing food gaps or engaging in crisis livelihoods coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse. 1. As of late February, desert locusts had spread to 21 counties in Kenya (Figure 2). Civil conflict in South Sudan has killed almost 400,000 people since 2013; 7.5 million people need humanitarian assistance. Labor demand may also be driven by farm-level control efforts to spray or scare away desert locusts. Reduced insecurity would facilitate the resumption of normal livelihood activities, trade flows, and market functioning. Coronavirus - Kenya: COVID-19 updates (7 December 2020) Coronavirus - Zambia: Daily status update (7th December 2020) Armée and Schmid Blend Experience and Youth for Team Qhubeka ASSOS In these areas, household access to food and income sources is increasingly likely to be disrupted by the impact of insecurity on market functioning, while the additional, new hazards presented by desert locust and RVF outbreaks are likely to be more severe given more limited control measures. Total cowpea production was 68 percent above average and green grams production ranged from 15 to 33 percent above average on the county level, primarily attributed to an increase in area planted and county government subsidy programs for seeds, fertilizers, and chemicals. Desert locusts are present in 21 counties of Kenya, but the impact on food security has been localized and limited to date. Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, ‘Population and Housing Census', August 2009. Months of rain have just ended but weather experts say it was not enough to prevent worsening food and water shortages. However, chronic food insecurity remains of concern, particularly in terms of dietary quality. Northeastern Pastoral Livelihood Zone in Mandera County, Boosting of security in the Kenya-Somalia border zones by the national security agencies. February SMART surveys were carried out in Isiolo and Tana River counties, where global acute malnutrition (GAM) prevalence was measured by weight-for-height z-score (WHZ),  and NDMA sentinel site data was collected in other counties, where GAM was measured by middle upper arm circumference (MUAC) measurements. The negative impacts of desert locust are expected to be mitigated by current and planned control efforts, headwinds and cooler temperatures that discourage locusts from entering high production areas, and the likelihood that rainfall will regenerate pasture. Adequate water availability has similarly benefitted domestic consumption and food utilization. According to final estimates by the Kenya National Disaster Operations Centre, the floods affected approximately 472,000 people, displaced an estimated 24,000 people, and left 266 dead, 82 injured, and 17 missing. In February, the retail maize price in key urban and rural reference markets reached up to 33 percent above the five-year average while wholesale bean prices reached up to 40 percent above the five-year average. Current food security outcomes, February 2020, Consecutive above-average rainy seasons drive improved food security outcomes, COVID-19 restrictions and forecast below-average Oct-Dec rains to heighten acute food insecurity. In early 2020, the availability of the short rains harvest and labor income earned in the 2020 long rains season are expected to lead to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes in some areas. Trends in FCS broadly improved from January to February, reflecting an increase in dietary quality and quantity given ongoing harvesting activities. ; In Africa, the discovered number of hungry masses is above 255 million. Outbreaks of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) are likely to occur in Marsabit, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, Tana River and Kilifi counties in February and from late May. Return trekking distances from domestic water sources are similarly normal to below normal, ranging from 2 to 5 km compared to 4 to 8 km normally. Conversion factors are: cattle = 0.7, sheep = 0.1, goats = 0.1, pigs = 0.2, chicken = 0.01. For more information on the outlook for specific areas of concern, please click the download button at the top of the page for the full report. The United Nations humanitarian office said Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2020 it is releasing $100 million in emergency funding to seven countries at risk of famine in Africa and the Middle East amid conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic, while the humanitarian chief says returning to a world where famines are common would be "obscene." Poor households’ own-produced food stocks from the short rains harvest are expected to last through April in Kwale, Lamu, Kilifi, Makueni and Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) counties and through July in areas that had better production. Based on data collected during the 2019 short rains assessment, the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) estimates that 1.3 million Kenyans are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes, a decline of nearly 50 percent compared to the preceding long rains season. This would be the first time famine has been declared since 2017 in parts of South Sudan,” the statement said. Hamdait, Sudan, Nov 11 Sudan said Thursday it would shelter thousands of Ethiopians fleeing fighting, streaming across the border on foot, by bike and by boat, in a reopened 1980s camp for victims of a historic famine.. More than 11,000 Ethiopians had crossed into Sudan by Wednesday to escape the week-old conflict in the northern region of Tigray as the UN refugee agency warned … Significantly below-average March to May long rains. Although the ongoing desert locust upsurge is of high concern, above-average rainfall is anticipated to continue to regenerate pasture, forage, and browse from March to May, offsetting losses. Yussef is supported by his daughter, who grew up as a refugee in Sudan in the wake of the Ethiopia's 1984-5 famine. After the 2018/19 drought, exceptionally above-average rainfall during Kenya’s 2019 short rains season disrupted livelihoods activities and slowed the pace of recovery in many areas, but food security conditions are now gradually improving. | February 26, 2020, 4:54 PM Locusts take flight from ground vegetation as young girls run toward their cattle at Larisoro village near Archers Post, Kenya, on … Kenya drought: More than a million people face starvation. The pandemic has exacerbated food insecurity across the globe, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), a partner of UC Santa Barbara’s Climate Hazards Center. Although localized staple and cash crop losses from desert locust are expected, high agricultural labor demand for replanting and locust control is expected to provide income that partially offsets poor households’ own-produced crop losses. High livestock prices have outpaced high maize prices, pushing the goat-to-maize terms of trade to approximately 15-55 percent above the five-year average (Figure 4). Despite widespread flooding, no livestock disease outbreaks have been reported since October except in Marsabit, where FMD, CCPP, and PPR cases have resulted in a mortality rate of around six percent of small stock. ; In the Caribbean and the Latin America side, there are roughly discovered 39 million people to be hungry. Increased security could lead to re-opening of the border, which would likely improve Kenya-Somalia cross-border trade by increasing both the demand and supply of livestock and staple foods, respectively. Although imports from Tanzania, Uganda, and Ethiopia are expected to fill the gap, above-average demand and high marketing costs are expected to contribute to above-average maize prices. Possible events over the next eight months that could change the most-likely scenario. However, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are present in Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, and irrigated areas of Mandera Riverine livelihood zone, where the loss of some agricultural labor income during the floods and relatively lower terms of trade is constraining households’ ability to meet their non-food needs. The number of hungry people in Asia is roughly 515 million. Somalia has declared a national emergency in response to the crisis. Although floods in late 2019 caused crop and livestock losses, the above-average 2019 short rains season led to favorable harvests in most marginal agricultural areas as well as above-average livestock sale values and milk productivity. Crops were broadly in the maturation stages or had already been harvested, while the rains and positive soil moisture anomalies facilitated rangeland regeneration and offset pasture losses. During the March to May long rains season, household income from livestock production and household milk consumption is expected to range from normal to above-normal levels, based on above-normal rangeland resources, anticipated livestock births, high milk production, and above-average terms of trade. Even without war, the large locust damage had already put many of those farmers on a path towards famine if no food aid would reach them in time. Northwestern Pastoral, Northern Pastoral, Northeastern Pastoral, Southeastern Pastoral, Mandera Riverine, and Tana Riverine livelihood zones were the worst-affected areas, where damage to roads and bridges suspended market functioning and many households endured livestock losses or crop losses. Based on historical trends and given that milk availability will remain high, ‘Acceptable’ levels will likely be sustained throughout the scenario period. Pastoral area outcomes: Overall, significant gains in livestock productivity and value have driven an increase in livestock-related income and milk consumption to near-normal levels despite the slow pace of recovery of poor households’ livestock holdings. Marginal agricultural area outcomes: With the exception of Tana Riverine livelihood zone, most marginal agricultural households are currently able to meet their minimum food needs. The years of famine are from 2020 to 2027. The refugee populations in both Dadaab and Kakuma refugee settlements, continue to receive food assistance rations reaching more than 25 percent of their population. As a result, livestock migration is broadly expected to occur at below-normal levels during the June to September dry season. Samburu, West Pokot, and Tana River counties were classified as ‘Serious’ (GAM WHZ 10.0 -14.9 percent or GAM MUAC 5-9.9 percent). For example, Turkana (Turkana West) is expected to improve from ‘Critical’ to ‘Serious’. However, crop losses from desert locust may lead to declines in agricultural labor demand during the weeding stages and during the July/August bimodal harvest in localized areas. NDMA’s interannual Hunger Safety Net Programme (HSNP), funded by DFID, continues to reach about 100,000 households (600,000 beneficiaries) bi-monthly in Mandera, Turkana, Marsabit, and Wajir counties, providing an amount equivalent to 40 percent of total household food needs. Low livestock prices, high staple food prices, low livestock productivity, heightened conflict and insecurity, increased migration, and an early and more intense lean season would be expected. Ongoing desert locust breeding is expected to result in the formation of new swarms in March/April in grasslands and croplands in central, northern, and eastern Kenya, which coincides with the vegetative stage in bimodal cropping areas. In addition, relatively low levels of resource-based conflict have permitted increased freedom of movement to rangeland and markets compared to recent dry seasons, while household time and money spent on accessing water is atypically low. A second wave of breeding is expected in June. Crop losses in late 2019 were primarily affected by heavy rainfall, including post-harvest losses equivalent to more than 10 percent of unimodal production in high and medium potential areas. Swarms of these migratory pests are destroying crops and vegetation in East Africa, resulting in loss of food and income for local families. “Without immediate action, famine could be a reality in the coming months in parts of Burkina Faso, northeast Nigeria, South Sudan and Yemen. According to the findings of the KFSSG Short Rains Assessment, total maize production is approximately 26 percent above the five-year average, attributed to above-average area planted and high yields in areas not affected by floods. GAM analyzed from MUAC data collected at NDMA sentinel sites indicated that acute malnutrition has been maintained at ‘Acceptable’ (GAM MUAC <5 percent) levels. Although Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in most livelihood zones at the area level, inaccessible, insecure areas in Northern Pastoral livelihood zone are most likely to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during the lean season. CHIRPS cumulative rainfall anomaly as a percent of the 1981-2018 mean, October – December 2019, Counties and wards where desert locusts are present, February 2020, NDVI as a percent of the 2003-2017 median, February 20-29, 2020, Observed goat-to-maize terms of trade in kg/goat across select key reference markets, February 2020 compared to the five-year average. The organization estimates that, across the 46 countries it monitors, 113 million people will need humanitarian food aid in 2020. In February, the cost of water is near normal or up to 50 percent below normal, ranging from KES 2 to 5 for a 20-liter jerrican across most pastoral areas and KES 10 in Turkana. The locust invasion is the worst infestation in Kenya for 70 years and the worst in Somalia and Ethiopia for 25 years. Based on field information and supported by the satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), pasture and browse conditions are good and above-normal. Cash transfers, supplementary feeding and in-kind distribution of food commodities by WFP to over 800,000 beneficiaries will likely continue throughout the scenario period. However, atypical pasture losses and associated migration is likely in localized areas of Mandera, Wajir, and Garissa, where insecurity will limit desert locust control operations. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.Learn more About Us. Humanitarian assistance is expected to continue across the country as vulnerable and food insecure households are supported by a combination of the national and county governments and humanitarian agencies. However, at least 20 percent of households in Kwale, Lamu, and Taita Taveta counties reported a borderline or poor FCS. Due to the loss of household food and income sources, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persisted through December in many areas. Learn more here. Long before it’s establishment Challenge Farm was in the heart of of God. A return to a world where famines are commonplace would be “obscene in a world where there is more than enough food for everyone,” U.N. humanitarian chief Mark Lowcock said. In rain-fed marginal agricultural areas, specifically, short rains production of maize, cowpea, and green grams generally performed better than previously expected. 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